Two days have passed since state-level elections in Germany that left a very bitter taste in the mouth of Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Christian Democratic Party. In the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, Sachsen-Anhalt, and Rheinland-Pfalz, the Christian Democrats (CD) failed to capture the state government, while barely able to secure victory in a third. In all cases, the CDs barely was able to win 30% support from the voters. In other words, the night was a political disaster for Merkel. Overall, most parties, with the exception of one of the mainline parties in one state, did as well.
The big winners of the night appear to be the far center-right populist party, Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD), as the relatively new party rode a wave of discontent with Merkel's refugee policies to post surprising and shocking strong results, leading some to predict the end of the Merkel Era was at hand. German commentary has even begun to focused on the possibility of Germany moving to the extreme right because of the rise of popular support for the AfD.
The Economist argued "[t]he populist politics sweeping over America and much of Europe has, it seems, come to Germany." I believe, though not dismissing the realities on the ground out of hand, populism in Germany is just a part of the story. The true story is more complex than that. To be honest and historically and politically accurate, Germany has not been immune to populist politics from elements of the far-left or far-right. Populism has been a part of German politics for many decades, leading to the fracturing of the once stable three party system.
Past Trends:
When Germany was regained its sovereignty in 1950, there were only three political parties that had any real impact on national politics: The Christian Democrats, the Social Democrats (SPD), and the Liberal Democrats (FDP), with the CDs and SPD being big tent parties, or "bürgerliche Parteien". For nearly 30 years, this party structure remained relatively stable despite the political and societal turmoil of the late 1960s through the mid-1970s.
The first break in the structure came with the founding of the Green Party in 1980, which positioned itself further left of the SPD on issues of economics, society, but primarily on environmental issues. The emergence of the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) after unification in 1990 provided even more competition for the center-left vote.
The PDS, however, remained mostly a regional party, mostly confined to the states of the former East Germany territory, but supporting center-left populist policies. This changed as the party merged with a sizable portion of disenchanted former Social Democrats to form the Linke Party in 2007, creating a new national party, attracting far center-left supporters to its ranks. The Linke Party is characterized as being a center-left populist party . Populism, it appears, reared its head in Germany much earlier than 2016, having a very long history within German politics.
The breakup of the SPD and the merger of the Linke Party created a new and difficult political environment in which the SPD and Greens must now compete in to capture the center-left vote. This is evident in the recent state elections in Sachsen-Anhalt as the SPD support collapsed and the Linke Party passed them.
The breakup of the CD's electoral support is reflected of that same general trend of party fracturing that was exhibited among the center-left parties over the past 40 years. To be frank, I am actually surprised as it has taken so long for the center-right in Germany to fracture to the extent it has. The recent results help to illustrate that this political structure is still in a state of flux and could change in the future.
Future Trends: What to Expect
It appears that neither of the "bürgerliche Parteien" are capable of stopping the tide of populist-led fracturing of the party structure at the moment. All indications appear Merkel and her government will maintain current refugee policies, regardless of the stinging electoral defeats and the unpopularity of the policy, giving the AfD more support.
Now, when we look at the results of the state elections this past Sunday, we are struct by how politically weak the "bürgerliche Parteien" are and how fragemented the legislative seating is in general. The SDs and CDs lost more support vis-a'-vis the Linke and AfD. This matters as forming the next governments will be more difficult. Grand coalitions are certainly possible. Policy wise, the SPD and CDs are close in many areas.
However, what could result is the creation of ideological unnatural unions or three party coalition governments, infused with stronger ideological differences. Though not necessarily ungovernable, with the ideological disbursement or divide so large among the potential partners, it could prove to be a more difficult governing environment.
When the Linke Party became a challenge to the SPD, the national SPD leadership adopted a policy of not considering the Linke as potential coalition partners. For the most part, this has remained the case at the state level as well. Additionally, it is entirely possible that the Linke welcome being left out of government, because coalition governing requires (to a larger extent than in the USA) more compromises on policy issues, first to even be in government and then to govern. These compromises could be catalysts to force changes to basic core policy beliefs that could change the very nature of the party, in this case, the Linke Party.
In similar vein, I do not expect to see the CDs moving to consider the AfD as potential coalition partners, nor do I expect to see the AfD accept such offers at this time for similar reasons held by the Linke. The AfD may be at the time more comfortable in securing its base by being the opposition instead of being involved in making the difficult policy decisions. In other words, it is easier to criticize than it is to govern as party across the globe have experienced.
One more point to consider in regards to governing: After 1950, the Social Democrats were not see as being a governing party by the German populace until the SDs began to moderate and look electable by the mid-1960s. The Greens underwent a similar transformation after their founding, which led up to their inclusion in Chancellor Schroeder's government in 1998 and then as the largest party faction in Baden-Württemberg in 2011 and 2016. What may happen in the future is a moderation of both the Linke and AfD that could eventually lead them to be seen as governing parties. I will not venture to guess when or how that will happen, only to speculate that it can happen based on past events. How far will each party go to "moderate" their populist positions is anyone's guess at the moment.
Finally, only time will tell how far the fracturing of the German party system will go and how much more will center- right and center-left populism will continue to play in this breakup. What is certain is that over the next legislative period and leading to the federal elections of 2017, the "bürgerliche Parteien" have significant amount of work to stop the electoral hemorrhaging of support, to combat populism, and unify once again.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Russian and US defense ministers talk
HThe Russian defense minister expressed shock and outrage that the US would reassure NATO allies in the face of naked aggression. He can go pound sand, for all it is worth. Of course it is all a dog and pony show: the Russians put up a faux act of them being disturbed and upset and not understanding why the US would train with their NATO allies when the Russian leadership knows exactly why that is.
The new sanctions have been expanded to include more of Putin's cronies. How much will the sanctions affect them is again questionable as they have had weeks to pull their western assests. Even so, the sanctions target individuals who were making millions off the deals their companies were making. Perhaps the next step should've or be targeting these oil firms to make them really hurt.
I was also thinking the momentum, an unquantifiable term, has shifted from the Russians. Two months ago,the Russians caught most everyone off guard by the swiftness of their invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory. By the time stopgap measures were in place, Putin was past that point and doing something else. He was keeping the West completely off balance. The military maneuvers, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure appear to have an effect as Russia has continuously claimed it will jot invade the Ukraine, at least as openly as it did in March. It won't completely prevent them from still sending in their military in small groups, disguised as the local population, but, in the meantime, all the negative press may have prevented a full scale invasion.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-27193628
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27204009
Sunday, April 27, 2014
US will continue Middle East peace efforts despite setbacks
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27154489
Russians seize international military observers while the G7 seeks stronger sanctions
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/25/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
And
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2614365/Ukraine-Special-forces-officers-captured-bound-blindfolded-peoples-militia-Donetsk-region.html
Merkel denied access to NSA files
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/10/angela-merkel-denied-access-nsa-file
Friday, April 25, 2014
A brief look at the cult of personality among North Koreans
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2611998/Bizarre-lifestyle-North-Korean-women-convinced-burgers-local-treat-Lady-Gaga-MAN.html
Costa Rica demands Twitter explanation Obama Administration
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_COSTA_RICA_US_CUBAN_TWITTER?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-04-24-11-41-50
Are economic sanctions having the desire effect? This story indicates they are starting to.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10786281/Russia-braces-for-crippling-US-sanctions-as-Ukraine-turns-deadly.html
Immigrants' Sexual Assault Plight
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2612793/The-women-know-theyre-going-raped-Female-immigrants-sneaking-US-taking-birth-control-avoid-unwanted-pregnancies.html
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Russian bombers enter UK and Dutch air spaces
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/23/world/europe/russian-bombers-intercepted/index.html?hpt=hp_c2
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Open Skies Treaty: US conducts surveillance flight over Russia
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-conducts-spy-flight-over-russia/
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