It has been a terribly long time since I last posted here. To be honest, I have been busy with a lot of personal and professional things in my life that I had to give up on some other aspects of my life, at least for the time being. It appears I have some time on my hands and thought I will take up the blog once more. It is my intent to post a weekly analysis of German politics and international happenings.
Obviously, a lot has happened over the past two years: President Obama winning reelection, the London Olympics, etc. We have experienced so much that I cannot possibly cover them all here today. I'll start with what I research, and that is German politics. In September 2013 Germany held their federal elections. It turn out to be a major victory for the incumbent Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and her party, CDU/CSU. The CDU/CSU nearly won enough votes to comprise a majority of the seats in the Bundestag, but came a few seats short. More on that later. The dominating results somewhat surprised many observers since many local elections appeared to indicate Merkel would have a more difficult time. If we look at Baden-Wuerttemberg, we see for the first time the Green party leading not only the state government, but also the capital, Stuttgart. Other local and state level elections saw draw defeats for the Merkel.
However, the September 2013 elections saw a major resurgence for Merkel and her party, producing the party's best showing since the 1990 united federal elections and the best possibility for a single party rule since the early 1960s. The difference between Merkel and her nearest rivals, the SPD, was a strong 15%. The CDU/CSU won 41.5% of the vote (PR) and 311 seats (MMD), a swing of nearly 8% of the vote and 72 seats. However, Merkel's most preferred governing party had a miserable showing and failed to even achieve the 5% threshold for party representation in the Bundestag. In other words, the Merkel's natural governing choice was no longer viable, leaving only center-left choices for coalition government formation. There was talk of the possibility of minority government, but that was quickly disregarded.
Merkel opened talks with the parties that were the most similar ideology among the parties that were left, the SPD and the Greens, while completely excluding the Linke Partei. For some time it appeared the Greens may be Merkel's choice, but the ideological/policy gulf between her party and the Greens was larger to overcome than that of the SPD. By December 2013, the third grand coalition of the post-WWII period and Merkel's second was formed. There were some grumbling among the parties and their members about the possibility and gridlock, but as my research indicates, German grand coalition governments are not necessarily ineffective and actually function rather well.
Another aspect of the 2013 elections is the rise of two additional parties that may play a larger hand in internal German politics, the Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD), a center-right party, and the Piraten Partei, center-left. The effect each party had on the elections was to draw away supporters from the FDP and the Greens and Linke respectively. At some future point I'll discuss more on these parties and their impact on German elections, but at the moment, it is too early to make any long term prognosis with accuracy. If, however, these parties remain viable players, we will see further weakening of the traditional party structure of Germany.
It is interesting to note that since the early 2000s, the center-left parties have been influx, fracturing into smaller, more ideologically stringent parties, weakening the SPD. Is the AfD the foreshadow of things similar things to come among the center-right parties is anyone's guess at this point. The center-left parties, the main players of the 2013 + the Piraten, comprised nearly 50% of the vote. If the parties had a more cohesive nature, being unified as a singular party or a maximum of two, the center-left's impact on electoral and policy outcomes would be greater. If, on the other hand, the left continues to fracture and the center-right remains more or less cohesive, it will be increasingly more difficult for the center-left to have the impact on elections and policy decision in the future.
Challenges ahead for Germany: the most urgent is the situation in the Ukraine. Like it or not, I think Russia is there to stay in the Crimea. There really isn't a card that the EU, Germany, or even the US can play at this time. The military would be catastrophic and the Europeans, with the exception of the British, do not have effective offensive oriented militaries, muchless a defensive military, which would mean the burden would again fall upon the US. It would also make EU states targets of Russian rockets, not a very attractive proposition. The use of economic sanctions, even targeted or "smart sanctions" would invite Russia to cut off oil and natural resources to Western Europe. There is even debate as to the effectiveness of sanctions against regimes. They certainly will not produce fast results.
Other issues that face Germany: continual economic growth, social welfare and labor reform, energy concerns, and EU governance reforms.
