The author argues that when the vote takes place on the status of the Crimea, and if Russia accepts it into the Russian Federation, the real loser will be Putin. The author argues as soon as the travesty is carried out, Western powers will impose economic sanctions on the Russian economy that desperately needs the FDI. Of course Russia will retaliate with its own sanctions, but the economic power disparity favors the West and the Russian sanctions will not hurt as much. The lack of cash will eventually hurt the average Russian more than the average European.
The problem here is the lack of reality on how fast sanctions will actually work in forcing behavioral changes. Economic sanctions will have an effect on the Russian economy, but not immediately and will take time before its effects manifest itself among the average Russian. It may take months or even years before Russian officials are "brought to their knees," and even then, as evident by Iran, sanctions may not produce the desired outcome. By then, Russia will have more than enough time to fully consolidate its grip on the Ukraine, making it doubly hard to extradite them.
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